In the past ten years, the science of the future, futurology, has grown from a fantasy genre to the status of a scientific discipline. The issues of the future are dealt with by serious organizations - the International Future Research Academy and its Russian branch - the Academy of Forecasting. The main principle of futurology is “Predicting the future, we shape it ourselves”. In other words, what kind of future we will think of for ourselves, we will get such a reality. And the mobile phone, and environmental disasters, and the flourishing of plastic surgery, and 3D television - all this was once predicted by someone in the form of projects and concepts. Below are the predictions of futurists made in 2010 for the next 30 years, and how much they have already come true.
Forecast: A male will not be needed for reproduction
What we have now: We are on the right track. The famous Polish film "Sex Mission" narrated about the same (in our box office it had a more "decent" title - "The New Amazons"). Indeed, according to the forecasts of scientists, within the next decade, the first fertilization from artificial semen, created on the basis of a female stem cell, will be carried out. In combination with the simplification and development of the IVF procedure, an interesting future awaits us … Man as a rudiment? Perhaps, but it will be a valuable, very pleasant rudiment, we will never completely abandon it, unlike the heroines of that very film.
Another aspect of the same prognosis: in the future, people will become more likely to adopt children than to give birth on their own. Interest in the adoption of children will grow not only in the prosperous Western world, but also in Russia. At the same time, many adoptive parents are already gradually ceasing to keep secret the fact that they are raising someone else's child. This becomes the norm, and the idea that the parent is the one who raised and raised, and not the one who gave birth, firmly enters into consciousness.
Prediction: The marriage will become a guest
What now: Indeed, the number of civil marriages has increased tenfold over the past 50 years. This is not a family crisis. This is a crisis of the institution of marriage, the main meaning of which is to confirm the ownership of property (so that in case of something a woman and a child would not end up on the street without a piece of bread). Now this is not needed. The woman has become much more independent and self-sufficient, and the attitude towards unmarried women with children has changed radically. Result: freed from patriarchal fears and pressure from society, a woman can afford a partnership with a man. And everyone benefits from this.
But that's not all. According to the forecasts of futurologists, official marriage will give way to civil and even more radical - guest marriage. The child will receive a Sunday dad, you - a Sunday husband and, what is captivating, a Sunday mother-in-law.
Another way of developing family relations is seasonal marriage, which is concluded for a certain time (1 year, 7 years, 10 years). After this period, the union is considered invalid, but if both parties wish, it can be extended and re-celebrated with a noisy wedding. When a scandalous German politician Gabriel Pauli proposed to introduce a 7-year marriage limit several years ago, it seemed like a bad joke. Many family psychologists think so today.
There is one more explanation for this phenomenon. Technological fusion of humans with machines - up to the appearance of implanted devices - will change a lot. By being in touch with the world twenty-four hours a day, we will no longer need a family. In any case, in the way that our mothers and fathers created to the sound of Mendelssohn's march fifty years ago.
Forecast: Injections will replace plastic
What already now: Indeed, everything goes exactly to a change in appearance without surgical intervention. The irreversibility of mistakes made by a plastic surgeon, unsuccessful operations have already led to the search for simpler and, most importantly, reversible procedures for correcting appearance and rejuvenation. Body modeling using injections is the main trend in aesthetic cosmetology of the future. Microinjections are confidently winning over our voices from plastic surgery. This method of correcting the buttocks and breasts promises instant and predictable results. The procedure is simple (the drug is injected between the skin and muscle tissue) and is almost painless. Local anesthesia reduces pain to the level of discomfort after intense exercise in the gym. The effect lasts from 12 to 18 months.
Moreover, in addition to injections, anti-aging creams have already been developed that do not even require invasive intervention in our body. In the coming years, this anti-aging care has all the chances to be prescribed in every cosmetic bag, so that at the first signs of fatigue, we will return not only a fresh complexion, but also fill in the annoying wrinkles that show age. So, by 2040, we will most likely completely switch to external means of correction, and plastic surgery will be used only to correct really serious flaws.
Forecast: We will live long
What we already have: Yes, everything is heading towards this. The era of longevity is coming. It seems incredible, but there are already babies in Europe who, according to doctors, will live 150 years. And until the age of 90 they will remain attractive and sexually active. An important role in this is played by the general passion for the topic of a healthy lifestyle. Drinking and smoking will not be cool at all. The same goes for fast food.
Medical devices will be transformed. Most of these frightening gadgets will soon turn into gadgets like modern mobile phones and mp3 players. The American corporation General Electric presented a prototype of a new generation of medical equipment - the Vscan ultrasound scanner. The device fits easily into the pocket of a doctor's gown, which makes it very convenient for emergency diagnostics. It is too early to talk about a cure for all diseases. But one can hope that humanity is about to defeat AIDS. Along with a cure for this disease, doctors are working on a vaccine that will be given prophylactically, like the vaccine against smallpox and poliomyelitis. It already exists and is at the testing stage.
Prediction: Robot Animals Will Appear
And what already now: Pets, for which too responsible care is needed, will indeed become a thing of the past. At least, to the child's request to "buy a dog", in the future you will easily answer by going not to a pet store, but to a toy store, where at a reasonable price you can choose a pet that will not make puddles, gnaw furniture, will calmly survive without morning walking and, most importantly, it will be possible to turn it off during the vacation, and not rack your brains with whom to leave a live dog in your absence.
The same fate awaits aquarium fish (the first robotic fish are already on sale, by the way), birds, guinea pigs and even butterflies … 5 years ago it was almost a fantasy, but today the first prototypes of these creatures are already on sale in ordinary toy stores. We become too busy to take responsibility for a living entity. But the desire to have a "little animal" will remain. Therefore, robotics, aimed at creating ideal pets (and not only), will develop by leaps and bounds.
Prediction: The Internet Will Go Telepathic
What's already now: Computers, Internet services and programs are being updated at such a speed that what was created in the morning becomes obsolete by the evening. The trend is one - more compact, mobile, easier, so that as many users as possible, including dogs, babies, old women and people with disabilities, join the PC world. What seemed to be an option for the elite, today is in any gadget: voice search, which no longer requires fingers or a keyboard. You say "Okay Google …" and you get an answer to any question. Going further: Voice-to-text converters are so advanced that modern mobile devices are equipped with voice memos that transform your voice into typed text in real time.
An invaluable service to science was provided by the Twitter microblog, all posts in which, as you know, are limited to 140 characters. Using this principle, a computer interface with a keyboard and a touchscreen helmet of his own design, American bioengineer Adam Wilson learned how to send messages hands-free. Exclusively by the power of thought. A very valuable discovery for patients who, for one reason or another, cannot themselves not only type, but even utter a text.
The flip side of the coin: the total penetration of the Internet into all spheres of life is changing thinking. Studies have shown that modern adolescents who grew up on the Internet, like no one else, are able to get the necessary information. For this they will pay with analytical skills. Problems, for which you just need to sit down and think (without a computer), will confuse the new generation.
Forecast: We will begin to learn life hacking
What now:This is one of those predictions that, after 5 years, have already come true. Ideas and time are the main values in the modern world. In the future, both will only get more expensive. The main trend for the coming years has already become lifehacking (from English life - "life" and hackk - "hacking"). This term was coined in 2004 by British journalist Danny O'Brien, who called him a talent to simplify life. And already in 2006, the American Society for the Study of Dialects named life hacking as one of the most useful words of the year. Initially, this related to working with computers. But now any person who knows how to do something quickly and bypassing the well-known rules can consider himself a life hacker. There are many English-language and domestic sites on the Internet, where such craftsmen share free advice for all occasions. Posts titled "life hack"- one of the most popular among Internet users. And this is already a reality.
Prediction: Food and clothes will be printed on the printer
What we have now: It is still far from practical application. At least when it comes to food. American know-how - a food synthesizer called Cornicopia - has not been developed, at least massively, in 5 years. It was made by engineers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The device works on the principle of a 3D printer, but the output is not documents, but all kinds of dishes. The main thing is to fill the cartridges with the necessary sources and select the menu. Cornicopi will independently, layer by layer, print the order in the required number of copies. Obviously, this "production" of food is still much more expensive than natural methods.
But from a very recent - the first collection of fashionable clothes, printed on a home 3D printer, which was presented by a 27-year-old college graduate from Israel. Let, for each dress, she needed, on average, 400 hours, even if the dresses are still too heavy to be preferred to the usual ones, but this is just the beginning. And the future lies ahead.
And most importantly, to be objective, over the past 5 years, the technology of 3D printers capable of printing anything, has developed to a fantastic level. The news now and then flashes stories about how the internal organs, limbs of animals and humans are printed on printers, which can quickly begin to be transplanted instead of donor ones to everyone in need - and this is the future that is next to us, moreover, where is it for us more important than printed food or clothing, which is still in short supply.
Prediction: Sports will become more accessible and go into gadgets
What we have now: Everything is moving towards the fact that sports and a healthy lifestyle are no longer the privilege of a minority who have time for fitness and have funds for a subscription. Already, both iOS fans and Android devotees can count steps, assess their physical activity, record calories, and even complete circuit training using their smartphones and tablets. CrossFit has become available thanks to mobile apps. And this is already a reality. Sports grounds with exercise equipment in parks and on adjoining grounds are becoming a reality. They almost stopped breaking them.
What else can we expect in the future? Simulators are evolving. And we will be forced to play sports for fun. An ingenious idea was visited by Spanish inventors. They combined an exercise bike with a chocolate and sandwich vending machine. To get the desired product, you have to pedal until the seventh sweat. Thus, it will be possible in advance to lose the calories that you are going to gain. By the way, remember how in the fall of 2013 in the Moscow metro at the Vystavochnaya station before the Olympics an automatic machine worked, which issued a ticket for 1 trip to the metro in 30 sittings (it was necessary to keep within 2 minutes).
Prediction: Power Plants Will Close
What now: We are still far from this prediction. Despite the fact that in Russia the law on energy saving has already been adopted, the construction of energy-passive housing in any significant volumes has not even begun yet. And here we would like to recall the recent ordeals of the residents of Crimea, who were left without electricity in December, and accelerate the introduction of the idea of energy-saving houses that would supply themselves with energy. But no. Homes equipped with solar panels and other alternative energy sources that are more environmentally friendly and less dependent on external circumstances still loom somewhere on the horizon. Perhaps here we really have to wait until 2040 …
Prediction: We Will Become a Civilized Trash
What we have now: Over the past 5 years, we are more likely to back up than approach the goal. The planned construction in Moscow in 2010 of 11 enterprises operating on the principle of hydroseparation of garbage has not begun, and the incineration plants, which were abandoned in the capital, can now begin to build again - in the Moscow region, which is already groaning with garbage, including, capital. And although the incineration of garbage is considered the "Stone Age", it seems that so far we cannot do anything with ourselves: we have not yet learned how to sort garbage in separate apartments and heads.
Alas, over the past 5 years, our citizens have not wanted to get used to sorting garbage, and they still throw glass containers, plastic, paper, and food waste into one bag. Even the multi-colored containers for sorting garbage that appeared in the capital's courtyards were not successful.
True, enthusiasts do not give up. The accustoming of our fellow citizens to a more civilized attitude towards garbage continues. Household appliances stores offer to exchange old devices for discounts for new appliances, chain clothing stores regularly hold promotions to exchange old clothes for the same discounts. A number of stores have opened collection points for old clothes this winter, which will benefit various charitable organizations from recycling. In general, there are still chances.
Prediction: We will switch to electric cars
What now: This future is just around the corner. In 1931, the Hungarian inventor Nikola Tesla demonstrated the first electric car that worked without traditional power sources (by the way, nobody has figured out Tesla's secret until now). Several years ago, the American company bearing the name of the brilliant scientist, together with the watch company TAG Heuer, presented an innovative development - the TAG Heuer Tesla electric roadster. And already today, almost all the main players in the automotive market can boast of industrial production of electric and hybrid vehicles, and the ubiquitous Chinese have joined them.
Mitsubishi has already sold 260 of its i-MiEVs in Russia. Saab unveiled its first electric sedan car in 2017. In 2018, a crossover from Mercedes-Benz appeared in the line of electric vehicles. An army of fans and owners of electric cars is growing in Runet, they even have their own portal. So it seems that futurists are not wrong: our immediate future is hybrid cars. And in the future - with an electric motor.
Prediction: Animal cloning will go commercial
What now:This is still a long way off. The second life, which the simple Scottish sheep Dolly received in 1997, inspired millions of people around the world to recreate their pets. However, with commercial cloning, things are still tricky. And it's not just the price of the issue (for the copies of their dogs, the first lucky ones paid Bio Arts, the only licensed cloning company, about $ 144,000 per animal). Now scientists are racking their brains over how to optimize production, making it easier and more affordable. For example, the South Korean company RNL Bio offered cloning using stem cells from the original adipose tissue, which halves the price. But there is no talk of any "rails" yet. So far, animal cloning is purely for scientific purposes. For instance,on exact copies of the same animals, they study the effects of new drugs, interactions of various drugs, etc. And, of course, the main benefit of cloning, which scientists think about in the first place, is that we can preserve endangered species of animals and recreate those that have already disappeared. True, the matter has not come yet to the reconstruction of mammoths. Looking forward to 2040.
Prediction: Nature will become a landmark
What we have now: As futurologists predicted 5 years ago, an increasing number of people began to prefer travel with the prefix "eco": eco-tours, eco-flights, eco-hotels, eco-entertainment. Already today, the so-called responsible and sustainable tourism is developing with might and main: you relax in a luxurious five-star lodge, but part of your vacation, for example, take care of elephants, or teach English to local children for a couple of hours a day, or help collect oranges from a nearby farm. The hotel restaurant serves local produce to support the farmers. Many spa hotels (the famous Six Sences chain have already done this) install water meters and use napkins, slippers and other household items made from recycled materials.
Prediction: You will fly into space
What we have: Perhaps our children, but not us. Here the flight of thought of futurists is far ahead of the pace of development of the commercial flight industry. Despite the fact that several space tourists have already entered orbit, the commercial development of this type of tourism has slowed sharply after the crash in 2014 of the SpaceShipTwo suborbital vehicle owned by the British company Virgin Galactic of the American adventurer and billionaire Richard Branson.
Inspired by the idea of mass space tourism, Branson created a separate division of Virgin Galactic in his Virgin Corporation. Its partner in the project is Scaled Composites LLC, which built the first private suborbital reusable spacecraft, SpaceShipOne. And after him - the improved SpaceShipTwo. The test flight on the spacecraft took place in March 2010. By 2015, the Earth-Space-Earth flight promised to become regular. But after the accident in 2014, everything turned out to be a big question.
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